Dear Colleagues, Development and peace in Afghanistan continue to prove multi-faceted and complex phenomena. The Conference of Defence Associations would like to draw your attention to recent articles that discuss the future of the NATO mission in the country, the role of Pakistan and its influence over the situation, and the domestic prospects for peace and development in Afghanistan. NATO Involvement In a report for the U.S. Congress published in July 2007 (see link below), the author Paul Gallis gives a concise overview of the history and prospects of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. He emphasizes that while NATO members may have similar goals, national approaches often differ widely. These differences arise from divergent tactics, military capabilities, domestic political imperatives, and larger strategic considerations. The author concludes that the outcome of the effort to stabilize Afghanistan will decisively affect the cohesiveness of NATO. In an article in the Scotland on Sunday (see link below), Brian Brady reports that European allies have flatly ruled out the provision of extra military assistance in Afghanistan. In an article for The Scotsman (see link below), James Kirkup reports that the British Government is planning to withdraw its 5500 troops from southern Iraq while simultaneously strengthening British Forces in Afghanistan with an additional 2000 troops, adding to the existing British contingent of some 7500 soldiers. An announcement on the subject by Prime Minister Gordon Brown is expected in October. In an article for the Kingston Whig-Standard (see link below), Senator Hugh Segal notes that the challenge of the post-09 Canadian deployment inAfghanistan is not just a Canadian challenge . . . [but] one that NATO must face as a collectivity. He notes that the credibility of such a mission relies on strong NATO support for a continued Canadian presence, and that [non]-robust NATO players such as Spain, Belgium, Italy, Turkey and others need to be more fully engaged with both troops and hard assets. Senator Segal ends with the warning that a NATO withdrawal would send a message . . . that the West is not prepared to defend its way of life and could bring the struggle closer to home, if not home itself. Pakistans Role in Afghanistan In an article for The New Republic (see link below), Dennis Ross considers whether pre-emptive strikes by the US against Al Qaeda bases in Pakistan are viable options given the reluctance of Musharraf to take firmer action himself. He advocates a tougher approach by the US, as it has an interest in using its leverage to [condition] the Pakistani public to a reality that if Pakistan does not act against such a threat [the U.S] may have no choice but to do so. On a different note, an article in Asia Times (see link below) by M.K. Bhadrakumar argues that the interests of Pakistan are being advanced by its involvement in the Afghan peace process. Musharraf has moved Pakistan to the center-stage of negotiations involving the Taliban, demonstrating to all parties concerned that Pakistans support cannot be extracted with threats but only through meaningful dialogue. In promoting a non-military solution to the Afghan problem, the author estimates that the jirgas peace process will incrementally free Pakistan from the distractions over the frontier problems in its western region and lead to more wholehearted cooperation from Islamabad for the consolidation of a long-term NATO presence in the region. Afghan Development Issues The eradication of poppy growing in Afghanistan continues to be a multi-dimensional operation, with no simple solution available. It involves economic, judicial and development factors. In a piece for the US Department of States information services (see link below), Jane Morse quotes US government officials stating that opium production is second only to terrorism as a threat to the economic development of Afghanistan. While US officials acknowledge that poppy cultivation has declined in some areas of Afghanistan, it has grown in areas where control is less secure. The article notes that ordinary Afghans do not benefit from the profits of the trade, which constitutes approximately 32% of the countrys total gross domestic product. Officials also add that there is no miracle crop that can equal the income from poppy. Furthermore, any replacement agricultural endeavours require suitable infrastructure to be successful and sustainable. In an article in the Globe and Mail (see link below), Paul Koring and Alex Dobrota highlight the difficulties in establishing an Afghan police force, the Achilles heel of the entire reconstruction effort. This effort will take generations and is essential to the legacy of the development of a larger and respected justice system. In an article in the National Post (see link below), Keith Martin highlights the poor facilities at a major hospital in Kandahar province, and calls on the Canadian International Development Agency to repair the facility in order to allow ordinary Afghans to access health care and facilitate the winning of hearts and minds. In article for the Washington Times (see link below), Isambard Wilkinson reports that the Taliban has published its first military field manual detailing how to spring ambushes, run spies and conduct an insurgency against coalition forces. Running at 144 pages, the manual indicates a significant level of organization and appears to be the result of collaboration between religious scholars and specialists in terrorist, logistical and intelligence tactics. Apart from addressing material and logistical concerns, the manual also addresses issues of recruitment and religious philosophy regarding the prosecution of jihad. On a more optimistic note, in a piece in The Weekly Standard (see link below), Ann Marlowe highlights how through the introduction of Provincial Development Plans, Afghans are setting spending priorities for their localities for the first time in their history. A bottom-up approach to aid disbursement would help to rectify the skewed development agenda that favours urban over rural areas. The CDA believes that, despite all of the difficulties involved, the mission in Afghanistan has witnessed a large share of successes and shows signs of progress. However, it is only with sustained commitment and a greater attention to the shortcomings of the coalition effort that developments can be termed an outright success. Canadas mission in Kandahar remains a vital component in the allied effort and has done much to ensure successes, both big and small, on the ground. Therefore, despite ill-advised calls to withdraw Canadian troops entirely from Kandahar after February 2009 (see article by Bruce Campion-Smith in the Toronto Star, link below), the CDA believes that the Canadian presence beyond 2009 must continue to be robust and effective in order to ensure a successful peace and development agenda in Afghanistan. Alain Pellerin Colonel (retd) Executive Director, Conference of Defence Associations (613) 236-1252 Links: Paul Gallis. NATO in Afghanistan: A Test of the Transatlantic Alliance. Updated on 16 July 2007. Congressional Research Service, Report for Congress. Available online at: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33627.pdf Brian Brady. Allies refuse to send more troops to Afghanistan as death toll rises. Scotland on Sunday, 19 August 2007. Available online at:http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1311882007 James Kirkup. British troops will quit Iraq fight for Afghanistan amid US criticism of role. The Scotsman, 20 August 2007. Available online at:http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1315842007 Hugh Segal. Peter MacKay's Afghan challenge; A foundation for greater stability is being laid, but security will remain a key part of the structure. TheKingston Whig-Standard, 17 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.thewhig.com/webapp/sitepages/printable.asp?paper=www.thewhig.com&contentid=657473&annewspapername=The+Kingston+Whig-Standard Dennis Ross. Statecraft Picking Battles. New Republic Online, 13 August 2007. Available online at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/print.php?template=C06&CID=1080 M.K. Bhadrakumar. Afghanistans ball back in Pakistans court. Asia Times, 18 August 2007. Available online at:http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IH18Df05.html Jane Morse. Opiums Threat to Afghanistan Second Only to Terrorism. USINFO, 14 August 2007. Bureau of International Information Programs, US Department of State. Available online at: http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2007&m=August&x=20070814144004ajesroM0.6177332 Paul Koring and Alex Dobrota. Keeping Afghan police on the straight and narrow. Globe and Mail, 20 August 2007. Available online at:http://www.theglobeandmail.com//servlet/story/RTGAM.20070820.wafghanpolice20/BNStory/Afghanistan/home Keith Martin. Canadas missed opportunity in Afghanistan. National Post, 21 August 2007. Available online at:http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/issuesideas/story.html?id=2bd07300-94c3-403c-82ea-635573d5a8cf Isambard Wilkinson. Taliban manual guides terrorists. Washington Times, 18 August 2007. Available online at:http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20070818/FOREIGN/108180033/1003 Ann Marlowe. The Afghan Grassroots. The Weekly Standard, 20 August 2007. Available online at:http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/985vzcxh.asp Bruce Campion-Smith. Dion: End combat by '09. Toronto Star, 18 August 2007. Available online at:http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/247574
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