"The End of Theory" discusses why causality in human systems is difficult

This book by Richard Bookstable is about economics and the difficulties it has in prediction. The ideas it raises underscore why prediction and measurement is so difficult in complext human system, including international development. Issues discussed include "the sum of human interactions can produce unexpected results" (emergent phenomena) and that "in the world of human interactions, probabilities constantly change" (non-ergodicity) as well as "radical uncertainty", that is that "people do not know the range, or probabiliy of future outcomes" and "computational irreducibility" that is the future is so complex, and the effect of human interactions so unfathomable, that people cannot possibly create models to anticipate the outcome."

http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21722150-new-book-argues-ec...